JUNE 25, 2025

Hello there,

We’re writing to share some important news: After nearly four years delivering great journalism, Cipher will cease publication next month. Our final newsletter will publish on July 16.

We’re incredibly proud of the impactful reporting Cipher has produced — and deeply grateful to you, our readers, for following our work and helping it reach decision-makers around the world.

Cipher wouldn’t have been possible without the generous support of Breakthrough Energy, which continues to do important work accelerating clean technology and climate innovation.

While Cipher is coming to a close, our team remains committed to independent journalism on climate and energy. We invite you to follow our reporters as we continue this work in new ways — you’ll find contact information and more in our final issue.

Thank you so much for being part of this journey with us.

And, we’re not done yet with this final chapter! We're excited about what we're publishing in the coming weeks, including this week’s edition:

• Cat Clifford lays out how the United States can get more power quickly.
• Two Voices authors share how solar microgrids are making a difference in Haiti.
• And Bill Spindle reflects on how energy investments have changed in the last 10 years.

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Send your energy photos, story tips and more to news@ciphernews.com.

Illustration by Nadya Nickels.

Here are four fast solutions in the current ‘race’ for power

BY: CAT CLIFFORD

The United States needs a lot more power — and fast.

With the rise of artificial intelligence, increased domestic manufacturing and growing electrification of vehicles, appliances and more, electricity demand in the U.S. is expected to soar in the coming years.

A recent projection from consulting firm ICF International estimates a 25% increase in electricity demand by 2030 and an eye-popping 78% by 2050. That’s a dramatic shift from just a couple of years ago, when electricity demand was both stable and rather boring.

In conversations with energy experts and leaders, several essential solutions (and challenges) emerged to meet the moment. Here is a summary.

Build solar and batteries

“The only way to meet our economic load growth goals is through solar and battery storage,” said Jigar Shah, former head of the Loan Program Office at the U.S. Energy Department under former President Joe Biden.

But the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress are taking steps that could make it harder to build renewable energy projects. The “Big Beautiful Bill” — Trump’s legislative agenda currently under consideration in the Senate — could choke off valuable tax credits for clean technology.

Embrace flexibility

Shifting electricity usage by big new customers like data centers to times when demand is low and supply is coming from low-emission sources could improve the reliability, cost and cleanliness of the current grid. It would also free up more capacity to meet growing demand with existing infrastructure.

Another way of adding flexibility would be utilizing networks of smaller distributed energy resources, called DERs. This might include electric vehicle charging stations, home solar generation, smart water heaters, smart thermostats and energy storage at industrial sites. These devices and systems can provide energy locally and controlling and coordinating their energy use can free up more electricity on the grid when needed. Sometimes DERs can even send energy back to the grid.

Taken together, a large number of connected DERs make up a virtual power plant, or VPP. Many utilities across the country already have small VPP programs.

Put demand and supply near each other

Locating an entity that needs power, like a data center, close to where that power is actually generated could help satisfy new demand quickly and cost effectively.

This is an especially appealing option for tech companies looking to power up data centers in the AI race.

Grid-enhancing technologies

Building new transmission lines is an epic bureaucratic and permitting slog, which is one reason to utilize excess transmission capacity during off-peak hours. But there are other ways to maximize current infrastructure.

New types of wires can carry more electric current faster and less expensively than many existing power lines. Retrofitting systems with these efficient wires could increase the electricity flow.

Another way to get more out of the existing grid is with sensors that assess real-time conditions, such as whether it is cool enough outside for a transmission line to handle more electricity. They can be deployed in two or three months — lightning speed in energy infrastructure timescales.

Read this article and share it on Cipher’s website.

Lunchtime Reads and Hot Takes

The Senate Bill’s Anti-China Clean Energy Killer — Heatmap News (subscription)
Amena’s take: When you read between the lines, the rules about sourcing "could potentially disqualify projects that are already under construction or factories that are already producing eligible components."

Ford Will Keep Battery Factory Even if Republicans Ax Tax Break — The New York Times

Cat’s take: “When we invest, we stick behind our investments. Ford is a company that will weather the storm until we get there,” said Ford exec Lisa Drake. Ford's decision shows its longer view of the future.

New York’s Energy Future Could Look Like Canada’s … Or Tennessee’s — Heatmap News (subscription)
Amena’s take: Facing unprecedented heat waves across the Northeast, Governor Hochul is heeding the call for clean, reliable base load power, which is nuclear and hydropower.

Spanish power utilities blame grid operator for April blackout — Reuters
Anca’s take: The finger pointing continues. The grid operator blamed conventional power plants for not stepping up. Utilities said they were following orders.

Solar bankruptcies mount as Congress slashes green energy funds — Financial Times (subscription)

Bill’s take: The industry is adjusting to the quickly changing policy landscape but will likely emerge stronger.

AI could cut more emissions than it creates — E&E News (subscription)
Cat’s take: Areas where AI could mitigate emissions include grid management and efficiency, protein development to replace meat and dairy in human diets and transportation improvements, the study found.

Supreme Court revives industry effort to axe California clean car standards — The Hill
Amena’s take: The high court's ruling was procedural, addressing the question of standing. It does open the doors for more challenges to California's authority, which it did not address.

Germany regrets Arcelor’s decision to halt carbon-neutral steel production — Reuters
Anca’s take: Clear example of Europe's competitiveness struggle: ArcelorMittal dropped plans to convert two plants in Germany to carbon-neutral production because the country's energy costs were too high.

More of what we’re reading:

• Blistering early summer heat tests Eastern power grid — E&E News (subscription)
• The billion-dollar US green hydrogen boom ended before it ever began — Canary Media
• Exclusive: BYD slows production, delays capacity expansion at China factories, sources say — Reuters
• Heidelberg sells out of net-zero cement from Norway plant, CEO says — Reuters

We denote ‘(subscription)’ when publications don’t provide any complimentary articles, but many others may ultimately allow you to read only a limited number each month before subscribing. We encourage those who can afford it to support the journalism you love most! 

Haiti's crisis fuels a solar energy revolution

Illustration by Nadya Nickels.

BY: EVENSON CALIXTE and ISABEL BELTRAN

Calixte is general manager of Haiti's National Energy Regulatory Authority. Beltran is vice president of Latin America & the Caribbean at Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet.

In the midst of Haiti’s worst political and economic crisis in decades, an unexpected revolution is quietly taking place — one that could transform its energy landscape. 
 
Haiti’s struggle with severe fuel shortages and an unstable grid has sparked a wave of innovative approaches aimed at expanding energy access through decentralized renewable energy (DRE), particularly through off-grid solar networks. These solutions are providing a vital lifeline to communities long underserved by an energy system that is insufficient, unreliable and dependent on fossil fuels. We know that because our organizations are working with partners on the ground and helping make it happen.

A combination of political unrest, rising crime rates and inflation has exacerbated Haiti's struggle to access stable power. Meanwhile, recurring fuel shortages and attacks on energy infrastructure continue to affect the fragile state of the country’s security and economy. Today, the national power grid reaches only about 49% of the population, leaving the majority of Haiti’s citizens without reliable electricity access.

While some individuals and businesses supplement this unreliable supply with private diesel generators, most Haitians cannot afford such solutions. Lack of consistent energy access impacts not only daily life but also economic activity and development, making energy poverty a critical obstacle to Haiti’s progress. Expanding access to energy could help drive development across sectors and spur broader economic growth — a potential step toward easing political instability and related challenges.

These conditions are a sobering legacy of colonialism. Haiti formed the first Black republic in the world, following a slave rebellion in 1791. However, an “independence debt” assessed by the French — and estimated to amount to $23 billion in today’s economy — hobbled the nation’s ability to develop the infrastructure and conditions necessary to support a prosperous, democratic society.

Despite these historic and ongoing challenges, Haiti is finding new ways to move forward. With the entrenched, fossil fuel-based energy system disrupted by ongoing conflict, off-grid solar is rapidly filling the gaps.

Indeed, Haiti is emerging as a hub for innovative off-grid electrification.

Read this article and share it on Cipher’s website.

A decade makes a huge difference in energy investment

Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Investment 2025 • 2025 values are estimated. Fossil fuels include coal, natural gas and oil. Clean energy includes grids and storage, renewable power, nuclear and clean power and energy efficiency and end use.

BY: BILL SPINDLE

The energy investment landscape has changed profoundly over the last decade.

Back in 2015, fossil fuels dominated the picture, amassing 30% more investments than electricity generation, grids and storage, according to the latest investment report from the International Energy Agency.

Now that ratio is reversing. The IEA expects investment in the electricity sector this year to be 50% higher than the total spent to bring oil, natural gas and coal to market. Meanwhile, investments in electric vehicles are soaring, with China way on top.

Globally, total investments in the energy sector rose to $3.3 trillion in 2024, 2% higher than the previous year.

It’s unclear how vast an impact President Donald Trump’s election in the United States — and subsequent clawing back of climate incentives — could have on these global trends.

In its first World Energy Investment report published 10 years ago, the IEA noted two budding trends: low-carbon sources of electricity were starting to take off and China had edged out the long-dominant U.S. as the world’s largest energy investor.

A decade later, those two trends have come together: China is now by far the largest energy investor globally, with its share of investment in clean energy worldwide expanding from a quarter a decade ago to almost a third today, the IEA notes.

Last year, Chinese battery maker CATL and electric vehicle leader BYD cracked the top 20 in global energy research and development spending for the first time.

Despite all the clean energy gains, China and India continued to pour investments into coal, expected to be up 4% this year over last (a slight deceleration from the 6% average pace over the last five years). Investments into natural gas — especially into plants that turn it into shippable liquified natural gas — grew strongly in 2024, while exports from the U.S. are poised to double over the next several years.

Upstream investments in oil — searching for new reserves and exploiting them, as well as maintaining production at existing wells — are expected to fall 6% this year. That would be the largest decline since 2016, and the first turn downward since 2020, when the Covid pandemic shut down the global economy.

Meanwhile, another metric worsened sharply from a decade ago: Investment in expanding electricity access in low-income countries, where it is critically needed, fell by a third. A continent with 20% of the world's population now accounts for only 2% of all clean energy investment globally, the IEA said.

AND FINALLY...
London rooftop

I snapped this photo during a rooftop lunch at one of the restaurants inside London's iconic Shard building with my colleague Anca Gurzu. Although solar (and even more so, rooftop solar) doesn't provide a big chunk of the United Kingdom's electricity, renewable power is growing.

Each week, we feature a photo that is somehow related to energy, the thing we all need but don’t notice until it’s expensive or gone. Email your ideas and photos to news@ciphernews.com.

Editor’s note: In addition to supporting Cipher, Breakthrough Energy also supports and partners with a range of entities working to tackle climate change, including nonprofits, corporations, startups and research firms. For more information on Cipher’s editorial policy, click here.