FEBRUARY 19, 2025

Hello, 

In Cipher this week:

• Contributor Anuradha Varanasi has two articles in a series about floating solar: Why Asian countries are turning to this technology and how communities have been impacted by a large floating solar project.
• Amena Saiyid shares a Data Dive charting the rise and fall of China’s investments in solar factories.

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A floating solar project on the Omkareshwar dam reservoir in Madhya Pradesh, India. Photos by Rewa Ultra Mega Solar Power Ltd.

Land is hard to find for solar farms. Asia’s answer? Float them.

BY: ANURADHA VARANASI

Varanasi is a freelance science journalist based in Mumbai, India. You can follow her on LinkedIn.

EKHAND, India — From above, an expansive lake in central India looks like it is partially blanketed by dozens of massive metallic rugs. The shimmering structures are rows and rows of solar panels floating on the placid water.

This solar farm on the Omkareshwar dam reservoir in the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh is part of a rapidly growing trend across Asia of building large-scale solar farms not on land, but over water.

To be sure, coal still dominates in this region — the dirtiest fossil fuel accounts for 72% of India’s electricity, for example — but floating solar is poised to take off.

As of early 2024, over 600 floating solar farms had been constructed across the globe, with the Asia-Pacific region boasting 81% of all floating solar developments, according to a Wood Mackenzie report. Going forward, China, India, South Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries are expected to account for around two-thirds of the global demand for the technology.

Several factors are driving leadership on floating solar in Asia. Fewer bureaucratic hurdles persist here to build large farms over water instead of over land, a precious and shrinking resource. Governments in Asia are also actively investing in floating solar developments and accelerating its permitting processes.

There are other possible motivators as well. Research suggests the panels can help reduce evaporation from water reservoirs, potentially boosting hydroelectric production. Solar panels are also currently very cheap, thanks in large part to China’s prolific production.

“It is logical to build floating solar farms on reservoirs and other artificial water bodies,” said Saptak Ghosh, senior policy specialist at the Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy in Bangalore, India. “Because this technology is land neutral, its environmental and social impacts are substantially lower than land-based solar energy projects.”

Studies have found that covering just 1% to 4% of dam reservoirs with solar panels mounted on anchored rafts could reduce water evaporation and increase hydroelectricity generation by more than 50% in the Global South.

Floating solar farms are more expensive to install and operate than their land-based counterparts since they require mooring and anchoring systems. But policy makers in Asia say the social and environmental impacts of floating solar are lower than that of land-based solar projects, counteracting the higher expenses.

The technology is not without its drawbacks. Solar panels on coastal waters may not be able to stand rough seas and corrosive saltwater. It is also unknown how floating solar panels could impact aquatic life.

Read this article on Cipher’s website and keep reading below for a deeper dive into one community's challenge with floating solar.

Lunchtime Reads and Hot Takes

Al Gore: Action on climate is ‘unstoppable’, despite recent shifts in US policy — World Economic Forum 
Cat’s take: "The remaining question, however, is how quickly will we do it?” Gore told WEF. I appreciate Gore's points here, but I would add that with climate action, the rate of change has to be a primary concern.

US Energy Secretary Attacks ‘Sinister’ Net Zero Goals, Singling Out Britain — Reuters
Amena’s take: Of note, Chris Wright said energy-intensive products won't be made in the UK; "It's just been displaced somewhere else." Should we read it as an invitation to "drill, baby, drill" in the United States?

Trump Starts Energy Dominance Drive With White House Council — Bloomberg
Amena’s take: Will the council truly be able to lower energy prices for Americans with a tariff war looming with Canada, a major supplier of crude oil? After all, global oil markets drive prices, not governments.

The SEC’s climate rule is over before it starts — CTVC
Bill’s take: Another predictable action, but one with significant repercussions for investors — namely, a lot less information about how climate change risks will impact companies.

EPA chief says Biden was ‘irresponsibly shoveling boatloads of cash,’ vows to get back $20 billion — The Washington Post
Amena’s take: The EPA entered into a legally binding financial agreement after months of careful vetting. If the money is out of EPA's doors, can it be recalled, legally speaking?

Global electricity demand to grow by 4% through 2027, IEA says — Reuters

Anca’s take: Emerging and developing economies are expected to account for 85% of global demand growth. Low-emissions energy sources such as renewables and nuclear are expected to be able to match demand growth.

When coal won’t step aside: The challenge of scaling clean energy in China — Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air

Bill’s take: How much and how often these coal plants get used remains to be seen as renewable capacity skyrockets in China. But coal interests still wield strong influence over energy-security strategy.

More of what we're reading:

• Existing US grid can handle ‘significant’ new flexible load: report — Utility Dive 

We denote ‘(subscription)’ when publications don’t provide any complimentary articles, but many others may ultimately allow you to read only a limited number each month before subscribing. We encourage those who can afford it to support the journalism you love most!

In rural India, a clean energy project is displacing families — again
A floating solar project highlights the challenges of new energy development

Semi-submerged temples close to Indhawari village and the third floating solar plant constructed by TATA Power Solar Systems Ltd on the Omkareshwar dam reservoir in the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh.

BY: ANURADHA VARANASI

Varanasi is a freelance science journalist based in Mumbai, India. You can follow her on LinkedIn.

EKHAND, India — Semi-submerged dead trees and temples gave the artificial lake an eerie and haunted look, even on a sunny September afternoon. As a wooden boat drifted past the white dome of a partially submerged temple, all six people on board joined hands and briefly bowed in silent prayer.

As the boat moved on, the reservoir surface abruptly changed, appearing suddenly smooth and vast. The group cut the engine when a gigantic rectangular island-like structure came into view.

The fisher people, who reside in six villages surrounding the reservoir here in the hinterlands of central India’s longest river, glared at the rows of thousands of solar panels bobbing gently on white plastic floats in the turquoise waters.

“This part of the reservoir used to be our coveted fishing spot,” Shobhan Singh, a fisherman from Ekhand, a nearby village, told Cipher. “Now, if we try to catch fish here, we will get electrocuted.”

The villagers were looking at part of the Omkareshwar Dam floating solar power park. The project aims to generate close to 600 megawatts (MW) of clean energy for the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh.  

After one of the floating plants came online in early September, the state government issued a notice in a local Hindi newspaper advising locals against fishing nearby. Due to high voltage currents flowing through thick cables from the solar panels to transformers, the notice warned of “imminent danger” if people spread fishing nets anywhere around the installation.

The announcement marked the second time a large-scale clean energy project had upended the villagers’ lives; the first was when the reservoir itself was built over 20 years ago, flooding the land of 50,000 small farmers.

"The locals have nothing against solar energy,” said Alok Agarwal, an engineer and social activist associated with the Save the Narmada River Movement, who has been assisting the fishing communities. “India needs more solar energy. But the green energy transition cannot take place at the expense of poor and vulnerable communities.

The fisher people recently filed a petition against Madhya Pradesh in the state’s High Court to put forward demands for 150 permanent jobs at the floating solar plants, skill development training and adequate compensation for loss of livelihood.

The experience of these villagers illustrates two major challenges of clean energy development the world over: ensuring rural communities are not uprooted from their homeland — or compensating them if they are — and integrating local people into the green energy workforce as the world moves away from fossil fuels.

To be sure, fossil fuels have disrupted communities for centuries — while also creating local air pollution and heating up the planet — but today’s often unforgiving limelight is focused on clean energy development now with the energy transition underway.

Read this article and share on Cipher’s website.

Solar’s dizzying investments return to normal level

Source: BloombergNEF, Energy Transition Investment Trends in 2025 • Investments include manufacturing of solar polysilicon, wafer, cell and module factories. Data for 2025 and 2026 are estimates.

BY: AMENA H. SAIYID

An overheated global solar sector is cooling off after reaching dizzying heights two years ago, BloombergNEF’s latest projections show.

While cheap solar power continues to outpace all other forms of renewable energy, the exuberance of 2023, when Chinese factory spending reached an “unsustainable” level of $85 billion, is now being corrected. 

As the chart shows, China — depicted in bright red — remains the world’s leader in solar manufacturing. The United States, shown in vivid green, spent the second most on solar factories in 2024 after China. 

While the chart seems to show the U.S. narrowing the estimated investment gap with China between 2024 and 2026, BNEF Senior Associate Pol Lezcano said China will continue to maintain its sizeable lead in solar manufacturing.

“Some of the U.S. investments will still move ahead and start production for the most part of solar modules, but many will also get canceled or not produce as much as expected” because of the long lead times involved in securing permits and grid connections, Lezcano told Cipher.

In other words, increased estimated investments in solar factories will not necessarily translate into increased solar panel production. 

Solar factory investments in the U.S. have mainly climbed from subsidies in laws like the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act and partly from some existing tariffs.

President Trump’s latest tariffs on China and planned ones on steel and aluminum imports could hurt domestic solar manufacturing going forward by increasing costs, said Lezcano. 

Last year, global investments in solar manufacturing plunged to $25 billion, just over one-third the level in the prior year. This year, the sector is expected to pull in $24 billion overall, a figure more in line with global demand, according to BNEF analysts.

China is a victim of its own success, with Chinese factories closing and companies looking for new markets overseas. 

"The over investment in manufacturing capacity and the fact that companies made their expansions at the same time has led to the severe oversupply in the market that we're seeing today,” BNEF's head of solar research Lara Hayim told Cipher. “Consequently, most of these firms are currently incurring losses that cumulatively add up to billions of dollars.”

AND FINALLY...
Biofuel rainbow

Cipher reader and head of communications at biofuel and biochar company MASH Makes Stephanie Kinch submitted this photo of the company's production plant in Udupi, India. The photo, taken in October by photographer Christopher Herwig, shows the plant where the company turns agricultural waste into biofuel and biochar to be used in a variety of industries.

Each week, we feature a photo that is somehow related to energy, the thing we all need but don’t notice until it’s expensive or gone. Email your ideas and photos to news@ciphernews.com.

Editor’s note: In addition to supporting Cipher, Breakthrough Energy also supports and partners with a range of entities working to tackle climate change, including nonprofits, corporations, startups and research firms. For more information on Cipher’s editorial policy, click here.