NOVEMBER 6, 2024

Good morning, it’s safe to say most folks in the United States — and many abroad — are focused on the momentous elections here.

While politics isn’t Cipher’s usual focus, the outcome of the presidential race — and others — will have major implications for the energy transition in the U.S. and beyond, so we are watching the outcome closely.

In this edition:

• In a data visualization alongside freelance reporter Tory Lysik, Amena H. Saiyid runs down the likely energy and climate positions under President-elect Donald Trump.
• Amena also has a Data Dive on the current, somewhat paradoxical, state of U.S. energy.

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Illustration by Nadya Nickels.

With Donald Trump victory, here are his energy and climate positions 

BY: TORY LYSIK & AMENA H. SAIYID

Donald Trump has won the presidential election, injecting uncertainty into and possibly slowing the energy transition, both domestically and around the world.

Trump, the GOP nominee and former president, has squarely focused on the United States producing, extracting and processing its own oil, gas and minerals. He has dismissed the seriousness of climate change and referred to spending on clean energy and climate initiatives under President Joe Biden as a “Green New Scam.”

Under Trump, the speed of the nascent clean energy transition will slow down, but won’t change direction, Anna Mosby, senior research analyst with S&P Global Commodity Insights, said in a briefing note.

Cipher looked at Trump’s campaign rhetoric and policy positions, as well as what analysts are saying, to project what his prospective administration could mean for U.S. energy and climate action. 

A significant open question is how Trump will tackle the Inflation Reduction Act, the signature climate law passed under President Biden, with nearly $400 billion in tax credits and grants for clean energy and technologies.

Trump could attempt to undo the law but would need filibuster-proof Republican majorities in both chambers of the U.S. Congress to fully repeal the IRA. He could also revise tax credit rules to benefit fossil fuel-related industries, but such regulatory undertakings are time consuming and require public feedback.

On the international stage, Trump may end U.S. contributions to the Green Climate Fund, which supports efforts by low-to-middle income countries to mitigate climate impacts. During his previous term in office, Trump pulled back U.S. participation in international climate diplomacy, including withdrawing from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.

When it comes to clean energy, Trump supports nuclear power and domestic mining of critical minerals that will make the U.S. less reliant on China. He has promised to impose tariffs on Chinese goods entering the country, including indirectly via Mexico.

He has made no bones about his opposition to wind energy. During the campaign, Trump railed against the struggling offshore technology — hit hard by inflation and supply chain woes — saying the projects end on “day one.”

Trump will likely push for more oil and gas drilling on public lands, including offshore sites. Notably, the U.S. is already the world’s leading producer of oil and natural gas, reaching new highs under the Biden administration.

Trump may also target Biden-era rules limiting carbon emissions from power plants and vehicle tailpipes, as well as those aimed at plugging methane leaks from oil and gas facilities.

In all, the future for the energy transition in the United States looks rockier with Trump in the White House.

Read this article on Cipher’s website.

Lunchtime Reads and Hot Takes

Trump’s Return Puts the Climate Economy on Defense — Heatmap News (subscription)
Jillian’s take: Key quote: “For every step back that Trump takes on climate policy, China will step forward and take more of a global leadership role.”

Growing Up In Climate Chaos — The New York Times
Cat’s take: From Alberta, Canada to Dhaka, Bangladesh to Kalamata, Greece, the next generation knows it will bear the brunt of the emissions we keep releasing.

Leaders from key countries to skip COP29 climate summit — Reuters

Anca’s take: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen joins France’s Emmanuel Macron, Canada’s Justin Trudeau, the United States’ Joe Biden, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and others who will be skipping this year's event.

Fuel disclosure from energy majors’ earnings — CTVC

Bill’s take: Enlightening if not encouraging for the energy transition. They’re mainly looking for ways to benefit without hastening the process away from fossil fuels. LNG is big.

Energy regulators scrutinizing data center use reject Amazon bid — Axios

Amena’s take: The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is essentially prioritizing reliability over accommodating new loads — re: data centers. This decision doesn't bode too well for Microsoft or Google, which have similar plans in the works.

Spanish floods demonstrate urgent need to adapt and protect — Le Monde

Anca’s take: Incredibly powerful and heartbreaking images from the deadly floods show how unprepared we are to deal with extreme weather events intensified by global warming.

Mining eats into more of the world’s forests — Financial Times (subscription)
Cat’s take: Key quote: "The world has got to reconcile with how do we service the enormous desire for electrification with the implications of that.” A climate solution causing a climate problem is a concern.

Tourist Investors Are Ditching Climate Tech for AI — Bloomberg

Bill’s take: The drop will delay hugely expensive initiatives in areas like nuclear fusion and hydrogen, which could be game changers not only for decarbonization but also for advances in AI itself.

More of what we're reading:

• Volvo moves to buy out Northvolt from Gothenburg battery project — Financial Times (subscription)
• Trump donor fined for pollution leads a fight to end methane emission penalties — The Guardian
• Advanced nuclear startup files for bankruptcy — E&E News (subscription)

We denote ‘(subscription)’ when publications don’t provide any complimentary articles, but many others may ultimately allow you to read only a limited number each month before subscribing. We encourage those who can afford it to support the journalism you love most!

Amid historic U.S. election, an unprecedented energy transformation

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA Monthly Energy Review, October 2024 • Includes power plants with at least 1 megawatt of generation capacity. Renewables include wind, solar, geothermal, wood, landfill waste and conventional hydroelectric dams, but excludes pumped hydro storage. Other includes petroleum liquids, petroleum coke and other furnace waste gases, including propane.

BY: AMENA H. SAIYID

The backdrop to the momentous election in the United States this week is a significant — and at times paradoxical — transformation of our energy systems.

Clean energy use is climbing, often rapidly, and yet at the same time, America has become the world’s biggest producer of oil and natural gas.

Global appetite for U.S. oil is surging amid the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Despite the GOP’s call to “drill, baby, drill,” the U.S. has been the world’s top producer of oil since 2018 and natural gas since 2011, owing mainly to the practice of fracking.

U.S. crude oil production has been rising since 2009, except for brief pauses caused by low prices in 2015 and the economic disruption during the Covid pandemic. In December 2023, the U.S. produced a record average of 13.3 million barrels-per-day.

The U.S. is also the world’s top exporter of liquified natural gas, beating out other top exporters Australia and Qatar in 2023 with an average of 11.9 billion cubic feet per day.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration • Data includes first seven months of 2024.

The EIA’s short-term energy outlook also projects U.S. power consumption will reach record levels in 2024, driven by the rising needs of artificial intelligence and data centers, alongside the ongoing shift in homes and businesses to electric heating and cooling systems, appliances and transportation.

Meanwhile, more and more of that electricity is coming from clean sources. Clean-electricity deployment and generation continues to grow, led in recent years by cheap solar, despite headwinds from high interest rates, supply chain disruptions, permitting and grid connection challenges in recent years.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review-October 2024 • Clean sources of generation include nuclear power and exclude pumped hydroelectric storage, which EIA says expends more energy in pumping than in storage. Data includes first seven months of 2024 generation of at least 1 megawatt of generation capacity.

Last year, wind and solar generation accounted for 10.2% and 3.9%, respectively, of the U.S. power mix. Combined together, these two renewable resources were nearly on par with coal generation, which has dropped significantly in recent years, according to EIA. This year, the government agency projects wind and solar could exceed coal-fired generation.

The EIA attributes the growing share of renewable energy to significant declines in manufacturing costs, state renewable-energy mandates that have been in place for many years and the more recent landmark climate law, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which extended the subsidies for these two resources.

Read this Data Dive on Cipher’s website.

AND FINALLY...
Climate ballots

Beyond the presidential election and other down ballot races, voters across the United States have also voted on a slew of policy-heavy ballot initiatives. In my home state of Washington, voters weighed in on two consequential energy and climate issues: Whether to repeal policies compelling electrification and another that would repeal a state climate law. Even as a journalist covering these topics for some 15 years, I found the wording of multiple double negatives confusing!

Yesterday, Washington voted to keep the state climate law. Votes were still being counted on the electrification measure on early Wednesday morning. Stay tuned for Cipher’s coverage on the results of these initiatives and more.

Each week, we feature a photo that is somehow related to energy, the thing we all need but don’t notice until it’s expensive or gone. Email your ideas and photos to news@ciphernews.com.

Editor’s note: In addition to supporting Cipher, Breakthrough Energy also supports and partners with a range of entities working to tackle climate change, including nonprofits, corporations, startups and research firms. For more information on Cipher’s editorial policy, click here.