MARCH 12, 2025

Hi!

This week, Bill Spindle is reporting from CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston. Say hi if you’re there too: bill.spindle@ciphernews.com. 

And Anca Gurzu is at the Sustainable Energy for All Global Forum today in Barbados. Connect with her if you’re there: anca@ciphernews.com.

In Cipher this week:

• Amena Saiyid and Bill Spindle ponder which clean technologies could be most likely to get approval from the new administration in Washington.
• Bill also shares a Data Dive on how renewable energy prices are expected to keep falling, despite the headwinds the sector faces.

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Send your energy photos, story tips and more to news@ciphernews.com.

Illustration by Nadya Nickels

These types of climate technologies could receive a bump under Trump

BY: AMENA H. SAIYID & BILL SPINDLE

HOUSTON — Clean energy technologies long considered compatible with oil and natural gas and closely associated with Republicans are likely to have a leading edge in the United States under President Donald Trump, who opposes traditional renewable solar and wind energy technologies. 

The shifting landscape has been evident this week at the preeminent annual energy conference CERAWeek by S&P Global, underway in Houston, where the schedule is filled with panel discussions and meetings discussing the role fossil fuels would play in the energy transition.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who previously headed an oil drilling services company, kicked off the conference with a full-throated embrace of oil, gas and coal, mentioning wind and solar energy only to single them out for criticism.

"There is simply no physical way that wind, solar and batteries can replace natural gas, and I haven't even mentioned oil and coal yet," he told a ballroom crowded with thousands of energy industry executives, policy makers and academics. 

The only clean energy Wright mentioned substantively was nuclear. “We are working to launch the long-awaited American nuclear renaissance, fission and fusion,” Wright said.

Analysts expect the Trump administration and the Republican-controlled Congress will advance clean energy technologies that harness the expertise of the fossil fuel industry, like geothermal, and boost fossil fuel production, like carbon capture and storage. Meanwhile, nuclear power has had enduring support among Republicans for years, extending now to the Trump administration.

But rhetorical support does not necessarily mean real-world gains.

Predicting which clean-energy technologies will ultimately succeed is difficult, since project economics and availability of federal support will impact how it plays out. In many parts of the country, wind, solar and battery installations have already become the cheapest source of electricity available. And Congress has not yet clarified which federal subsidies and tax credits will be continued, canceled or altered — all of which would have a significant impact on energy production, clean or otherwise.

The analysts Cipher interviewed said the U.S. will need “all the electrons” it can generate to meet surging electricity demand in coming years, and it will likely lean in on traditional fossil fuel sources since the infrastructure already is in place.

Three of Trump’s cabinet secretaries — Interior Secretary Doug Burgum who also chairs the new National Energy Dominance Council, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin and Wright — are attending CERAWeek.

Burgum is a supporter of carbon capture and storage, touting it in speeches. Wright was a shareholder in geothermal firm Fervo Energy and on the board of small modular reactor company Oklo. Zeldin began his tenure as EPA head by authorizing West Virginia to issue its own carbon storage permits.

Many of the discussion subjects at the conference revolved around preventing leaks of natural gas from infrastructure or capturing carbon when fossil fuels are burned or pulling it out of the air directly to allow fossil fuels to be used for decades into the future, perhaps even permanently for many uses, some executives argued.

Also garnering enthusiasm in Houston this week were technologies that allow for the use of cleaner fuels — sometimes referred to as "drop-in" fuels — that can be used in existing fossil-fuel infrastructure.

"Drop-in fuels are amazing, so there's that opportunity with existing infrastructure," said Lee Beck, senior vice president for global policy and commercial strategy at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center.

Geothermal energy, which can be extracted using shale oil and gas techniques, has also gained high-profile traction recently, with deals inked by geothermal firms Fervo Energy and Sage Geosystems with Google and Meta, respectively.

The preservation of tax credits and funding from laws like the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act may matter more for more nascent sectors, like carbon capture, than they do for more established sectors, like solar. 

In Houston, the head of the American Petroleum Institute told Axios it would advocate for the preservation of tax credits for carbon capture, hydrogen and green jet fuels. And over the weekend, 21 Republican lawmakers sent a letter pledging their support for maintaining clean energy tax credits.

On hydrogen, it is unclear whether the administration will move forward with funding for seven federally funded hubs to incubate the low-carbon hydrogen industry. But some remain optimistic.

“I think the fundamentals around clean hydrogen hubs are so appealing because it’s a natural extension of the shale gas revolution,” said Alex Kizer, executive vice president of EFI Foundation.

Editor’s note: Fervo Energy’s investors include Breakthrough Energy Ventures, a program of Breakthrough Energy, which also supports Cipher.

Read this article and share it on Cipher’s website.

Lunchtime Reads and Hot Takes

U.S. Energy Secretary Pledges to Reverse Focus on Climate Change — The New York Times
Bill’s take: There’s much tension between Trump’s desire to tout fossil fuels and downplay renewables yet meet rapidly growing energy demand. Climate doesn’t figure into that calculus, Wright said.

US Supreme Court nixes challenge to state climate suits against oil firms — Reuters
Amena’s take: California, Connecticut, Minnesota, New Jersey and Rhode Island can now proceed with lawsuits in state courts where they will be able to describe how climate change is having major local impacts.

US makes fresh push for World Bank to back nuclear power — Financial Times (subscription)
Cat’s take: Such a move would help the U.S. compete with Russia and China, which currently dominate nuclear exports, for the economic and geopolitical benefits that come with being a global nuclear export leader.

UN Climate Envoy Mark Carney to be Canada’s next Prime Minister — Edie
Amena’s take: While President Trump walks away from U.S. climate commitments, neighboring Canada is set to appoint a leader who advocated for climate risk considerations across the financial sector.

US pulls out of flagship $45bn global climate finance coalition — Financial Times (subscription)
Cat’s take: This is unsurprising given the Trump administration's focus on fossil fuels and retreat from global cooperation.

What to Know About the On-Again, Off-Again Trump Tariffs — The New York Times
Amena’s take: The flip flop on tariffs is certainly creating a climate of uncertainty for businesses that prefer certainty. It also is going to drive up prices of American-made goods affected by these materials.

Nigeria bids to host COP32 climate summit in Lagos — Climate Home News
Anca’s take: The country is a major oil and gas producer, which now appears to be a "trend" for COP hosting applications.

Spain calls for EU to forge China policy without US — Financial Times (subscription)
Bill’s take: China is hoping rifts in U.S.-EU relationship will convince the EU to lower tariffs on Chinese cleantech in areas like EVs and batteries, which Chinese companies excel in making.

More of what we're reading:

• EPA Terminates $20 Billion in Grants for Climate Projects — Bloomberg
• What is the future of renewable and clean energy tax credits? — Ernst & Young
• Why Banks Keep Lowering Their Climate Targets — Bloomberg
  
  

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Renewable energy costs fall further

Source: BloombergNEF • Presented on a Leveled Cost of Energy (LCOE) basis. Global benchmarks are capacity-weighted averages using BNEF capacity forecasts. LCOEs reported without subsidies or tax credits. Offshore wind includes transmission costs. Solar refers to fixed-axis photovoltaics. Battery storage reflects four-hour systems.

BY: BILL SPINDLE

Despite political turmoil and economic uncertainty, costs of renewable energy worldwide are still declining — and those decreases could accelerate, according to an analysis from BloombergNEF published February 4.

The costs of clean power technologies such as wind, solar and battery storage are expected to dip 2% to 11% this year, even more than last year’s average decline, BNEF said. They are expected to fall another 22% to 49% over the next decade, depending on the location and government policies, BNEF said.

Even in countries that impose tariffs — notably the United States, but also India and Europe — cost declines are expected to persist but are likely to be smaller than those in markets without barriers or tariffs targeting imported renewable technologies.

The price tag of clean electricity is measured — and compared with other types of energy — using a method that calculates the estimated expenses over the lifetime of the project. This Levelized Cost of Electricity, abbreviated as LCOE, averages the up-front expenditures that comprise the bulk of most renewable energy projects’ expenses over the projected lifetime of the installation.

This figure is then compared to the cost of fossil fuel generation, including the funds needed to construct a fossil fuel plant, along with an estimate of the tab for the fuel the facility will need over the course of its life.

To be sure, the LCOE model doesn’t incorporate all aspects of electricity generation, such as the system changes needed to accommodate variable wind and solar energy (to dive more into these caveats, check out this explainer from nonprofit World Resources Institute).

But the costs of batteries, which help balance wind and solar, are also dropping. After sliding by one-third last year, they are expected to fall below $100 per megawatt hour this year, a threshold that just a few years ago was considered a sort of holy grail in the industry. They could slip another 50% by 2035, BNEF said.

Overall, the cost of solar, wind and batteries has been on a steady downward march for more than a decade, aside from a pause during the Covid pandemic, when prices remained fairly stagnant. BNEF expects that downhill trajectory to continue, even for solar, which has already experienced declines of more than 90% over the past decade.

The combination of renewables and batteries together is now the cheapest electricity option in several huge markets, including China, Germany, Australia and the United Kingdom, according to Amar Vasdev, an energy economics analyst at BNEF.

“That’s a significant chunk of power cheaper than fossil fuels,” he said.

Huge increases in renewables manufacturing capacity in China, which has overwhelmed global demand, has pushed prices lower globally. China has put the production and export of clean-energy technologies at the top of its economic agenda, making the country the world leader in cleantech manufacturing. But it’s also stoking trade friction that could delay some of the price declines, though it’s unlikely to reverse them, BNEF said. The report didn’t specifically address the Trump administration’s recent tariffs, which are significant.

AND FINALLY...
Seaweed and sheep power

Anca Gurzu took this photo in Barbados of a car charged using renewable natural gas derived from sargassum (an invasive seaweed), rum distillery wastewater and Blackbelly sheep manure (who would have thought that was possible!?). 

While the vehicle in the photo is an electric Nissan Leaf, cleantech startup Rum and Sargassum CEO Legena Henry told Anca a four-hour installation can convert any car, including one with a conventional engine, to run on the renewable gas by switching it to run on compressed natural gas through a special kit. The pilot project is in partnership with the Caribbean Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency and the goal is to make the renewable gas accessible at the pump by the end of 2026.

Each week, we feature a photo that is somehow related to energy, the thing we all need but don’t notice until it’s expensive or gone. Email your ideas and photos to news@ciphernews.com.

Editor’s note: In addition to supporting Cipher, Breakthrough Energy also supports and partners with a range of entities working to tackle climate change, including nonprofits, corporations, startups and research firms. For more information on Cipher’s editorial policy, click here.