DECEMBER 13, 2023

Hello,

It's a wrap in Dubai! Get caught up fast on the COP28 takeaways with Cipher by clicking here and read our breaking news top reads and hot takes below.

We’re all over the world in today’s edition: From Dubai, Bill looks at fusion, a timely Voices article scrutinizes Saudi Arabia’s net-zero path and Anca chronicles Latin America’s power in our Data Dive.
 
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Speakers participate in a panel discussion on fusion at an Atlantic Council event at COP28 on Dec. 5. From L to R: Gabriela Hearst, fashion designer and chief creative director of Chloe; Bob Mumgaard, CEO, Commonwealth Fusion Systems and board member of the Fusion Industry Association; and Ernest Moniz, former U.S. Energy Secretary and president of Energy Futures Initiative. Photo courtesy of the Atlantic Council.

At COP28, nuclear fusion makes first-ever appearance

BY: BILL SPINDLE

DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES — Amid the unprecedented hoopla of the COP28 climate summit over the past two weeks, the geekiest of new energy technologies made a first-time splash appearance.

Nuclear fusion is so nascent an energy business it doesn’t yet exist on Earth. But there on an expansive stage at COP28 were a globally renowned fashion designer and one of the world’s top scientists raving over it, having been introduced with thundering plaudits by United States climate envoy John Kerry.

Uruguayan designer Gabriela Hearst wore a dress adorned with the blueprint of a nuclear fusion reactor and explained why, as chief creative director at luxury brand Chloé, she produced an entire fashion show in Paris last year around the concept of crushing atoms together, the essence of nuclear fusion.

“It’s become my holy grail,” she said, not the first time a fusion advocate used this metaphor of the ultimate mythical treasure to describe the technology.

Earnest Moniz, the mop-haired MIT brainiac and former U.S. energy secretary, nodded in agreement at the opposite end of the same panel. Other nuclear fusion events, promotions and photo-ops popped up elsewhere at COP28, including among the investments highlighted by Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy Ventures. (Breakthrough Energy Ventures is a program of Breakthrough Energy, which provides support for Cipher).

Nuclear fusion differs from the dominant nuclear energy in the world today, which is nuclear fission. Fission got plenty of attention at this COP, as well, with 22 countries pledging to triple the capacity of the technology, which produces no global warming gases.

Fission plants — the hulking towers that have rarely, but at times spectacularly, struggled with safety issues in the three-quarters of a century they’ve been around — unleash massive amounts of energy by splitting atoms apart. This creates radioactive waste and requires controls to avoid the sort of runaway chain reaction that melted down the infamous Chernobyl facility in the former Soviet Union in 1986.

Nuclear fusion, on the other hand, forces multiple atoms together into one. This also unleashes vast amounts of energy but leaves behind plain water as the main byproduct and carries no risk of an uncontrolled reaction. It is, as advocates love to say, the energy that powers the stars and created all matter in the universe, including life on earth.

“If you want to know if it works, just go outside and look up,” said Ralf Kaiser, an official at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics and the former head of the physics section of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

At the COP28 event hosted by the Atlantic Council, Kerry announced an international research and development effort aimed at accelerating the timeline for fusion to become a commercial source of power.

The universal fanfare over nuclear fusion was a counterpoint to often frustrated clashes at COP over the role of fossil fuels in the energy transition. Its long timeline of the early 2030s at best also contrasted with urgent calls for moving to triple already available renewable sources such as solar and wind — which are producing substantial clean power today and are growing fast.

Read the full article on Cipher’s website.

Lunchtime Reads and Hot Takes

COP28 ends with deal on transition away from fossil fuels

 — Bloomberg
Bill's take: For all the caveats and hedging, it's impossible not to see the conclusion of this year's climate summit as a historic declaration that marks the beginning of the end of fossil fuels. Only hard work and purpose will make it actually happen, and fast enough to make a difference to global warming. 

Reaction to the final COP28 climate deal — Reuters

Anca's take: Useful, comprehensive and diverse set of immediate reactions from government officials. Some applaud the deal as a milestone, others describe it as a bare minimum.

After 30 years of waiting, Cop28 deal addresses the elephant in the room — The Guardian

Anca's take: It's remarkable that an oil-producing country managed to insert a commitment on reducing fossil fuels into the deal, but it's also important not to forget that many countries are planning a massive increase in 

production in the years ahead.

The price tag of COP28’s renewable energy pledge — POLITICO Europe

Anca's take: To achieve the renewable target, countries will need to bet big on solar and wind. Doubling energy efficiency improvements (the second pledge) is a more complex challenge.

High interest rates threaten to bury one of COP28’s brightest hopes — POLITICO
Amy’s take: This is a must-read article I haven’t seen tackled head-on elsewhere. I also didn’t realize the impact rising interest rates have on decommissioning fossil-fuel assets.

Azerbaijan chosen to host COP29 after fraught negotiations — The Guardian

Anca’s take: Azerbaijan is a big oil and gas exporter caught in a regional conflict and a friend of Russia’s.

How COP28 is setting the stage for the global hydrogen trade — The National

Amena’s take: This new global standard is an important step because it creates a common currency for defining clean hydrogen and will allow countries to know whether the molecule is made from renewables or fossil fuels.

Diplomatic cables reveal UK fears over $15B Vietnam coal deal — POLITICO

Anca’s take: Interesting to read snippets of these leaked briefing notes, as they provide a sneak-peak behind the scenes on the real political dynamics around dropping coal, despite flashy public announcements.

China’s Ailing Clean Energy Industry Eyes Remedy in Saudi Arabia — Bloomberg

Bill's take: This is a partnership between a clean energy super-power and a potential up-and-comer in renewables from the fossil fuel hall of fame.  

More of what we're reading:

• Norway oil and gas investments set to soar in 2024, industry says — Reuters

• Why is COP28 climate summit in Dubai so crowded this year? — The Washington Post
• Agreeing to agree: Everyone must come to consensus at COP28 climate talks, toughening the process — AP

Saudi Arabia has a surprisingly clear path to net zero

A pipe carrying CO2 at the Hawiyah Natural Gas Liquids Recovery Plant, operated by Saudi Aramco in Saudi Arabia on June 28, 2021. The plant is a pilot project for carbon capture technology. Photo credit: Maya Siddiqui/Bloomberg via Getty Images.

BY: JIM KRANE

Krane is the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute. He is the author of the book Energy Kingdoms. You can reach Jim at jkrane@rice.edu.

As the world’s number one exporter of crude oil, Saudi Arabia has a lot riding on decarbonization.

Oil exports fund about 75% of Saudi Arabia’s government budget, providing the generous social welfare benefits that maintain public support for the Saudi royal family.

Depending on the world’s approach to climate action, a future with less oil revenue could destabilize not just the Saudi economy, but the monarchy itself.

From that perspective, the Saudi pledge in 2021 to reach “net zero” greenhouse gas emissions by 2060 came as a surprise.

Were the Saudis joining a global climate regime that could undermine its own wellbeing? No. The kingdom has strong economic rationales — and big advantages — in decarbonizing. Still, the Saudi approach is a contradictory one. As it vows to decarbonize at home, Saudi actions suggest the kingdom opposes similar pursuits by the rest of the world.

While the kingdom has yet to release an official plan to achieve its net zero goals, a serious net zero effort would give the country useful benefits for its reputation on the world stage. And it would help the Saudis shape the way the world decarbonizes, with a view to keeping oil and natural gas in the mix long term.

The task is big. Saudi is a disproportionately large emitter relative to its population. The kingdom exhaled more than 500 million metric tons of CO2 in 2020, just behind Canada and ahead of Brazil. On a per capita basis, Saudi Arabia emits more CO2 than even the United States — 14 metric tons a year versus 13 in the U.S. — on average incomes just 75% as large. European Union per capita emissions are just a third of the kingdom’s.

Despite Saudi Arabia’s daunting carbon load, I find there’s a convincing case for cleaning up.

Read the full article on Cipher’s website.

Wind and solar drive growth of clean power in Latin America

Source: International Energy Agency, Latin American Energy Outlook 2023 • Latin America includes South and Central American countries. The analysis also includes countries in the Caribbean. Fossil fuels includes oil, coal and natural gas. Other includes bioenergy, geothermal, marine and tidal energy, non-renewable waste and battery storage capacity additions.

BY: ANCA GURZU

Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have some of the lowest-emission electricity systems in the world and the growth of wind and solar could clean up the grids even more, according to a recent report from the International Energy Agency.

Hydropower is the dominant renewable energy source in the region’s electricity mix at 45% of total generation. Wind energy accounts for 8% and solar energy for 4%. Fossil fuels account for 36% of power generation. The data in the report is from 2022.

While wind and solar still represent small percentages in the overall power mix, “wind and solar PV capacity additions have been accelerating sharply in recent years,” representing more than half of annual capacity additions in the last three years, according to the report.

At the same time, the share of fossil fuels added to the grid has been declining, with almost no construction of coal-fired or oil-fired power plants in recent years.

Outside of electricity, however, countries in Latin America and the Caribbean still rely heavily on fossil fuels to meet other energy needs, the IEA writes. Oil remains the main fuel used in the region, with demand driven by the transport and industry sectors.

AND FINALLY...
Concrete COP

I snapped this photo during a COP28 party at a building called Concrete on Alserkal Avenue, Dubai's industrially minded art district. Although I spotted John Kerry at the party, I found this shot in one of the only hallways more interesting, towering walls of what appear to be, in fact, concrete. Cement, which goes into making concrete, accounts for roughly 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions. This 2017 Financial Times article says the walls have been "sprayed with dark concrete studded with fragments of mirror."

Each week, we feature a photo that is somehow related to energy, the thing we all need but don’t notice until it’s expensive or gone. Email your ideas and photos to news@ciphernews.com.

Editor’s note: In addition to supporting Cipher, Breakthrough Energy also supports and partners with a range of entities working to tackle climate change, including nonprofits, corporations, startups and research firms. For more information on Cipher’s editorial policy, click here.