My latest column, published this week, is in partnership with my alma mater, Western Washington University, as part of its Window magazine focus on climate and energy solutions, which I also guest edited.
Our edition also includes:
A Voices article about the valleys of death facing would-be startups.
A Data Dive by Anca about Europe's transmission ambitions.
You might be under the impression the world is not making progress shifting away from our reliance on the oil, natural gas and coal that emit the greenhouse gases warming our planet.
But in fact, several recent data points suggest the energy transition is happening, often faster than even some experts have predicted.
Here are the quick highlights, and click here to go deeper with my full column:
The world is making progress shifting away from reliance on oil, natural gas and coal, even though the aggregate figures of supply and demand are not showing it (yet).
Per capita greenhouse gas emissions peaked a decade ago and are now slowly falling, according to a new book by data scientist Hannah Ritchie, which is a sign total emissions will peak soon, she writes.
Since 2015, the projected amount of warming expected in the coming decades has dropped from ~3.7 to 2.7 degrees Celsius, per the Climate Action Tracker. That's still (very) alarming, but it's better than it could have been.
Source: Climate Action Tracker • Values included for the global temperature increase projections are median, with extended ranges on either side.
“There is a measurable difference between a pre- and post-Paris world,” Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist at The Nature Conservancy, told me at an Aspen Institute climate conference in Miami in March. "If we don’t talk about what has been accomplished, we are disempowering and discouraging people from taking action.”
Some fast cleantech facts via a recent op-ed written by Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency: Electric car sales are still increasing rapidly. One in five cars sold worldwide were electric in 2023, compared to one in 25 in 2020.
It's now cheaper to build wind and solar power projects than new fossil fuel plants.
To be sure, this energy transition is probably not going to be smooth (what massive, global, systemic changes are?).
Look no further than the ups and downs of electric-car sales and alternative proteins to get a sense of the bumpy ride we’re in for. These aren’t arguments not to transition; it’s an argument to find better solutions.
Technology isn’t the only answer, but it likely lies at the center of any response to climate change since appealing to our collective sense of altruism has not worked to solve many other big problems (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic, which was ultimately largely solved with vaccines — another technology innovation).
Just like you can’t see the curve of the Earth when you’re standing on the ground, we’re at a curve in history we can’t see from our temporal vantage point. A few hundred years from now, I predict historians will write about these decades as a critical period when our energy system, and global heat-trapping emissions, finally started to shift.
It’s hard for us as humans — when we live such short lives compared to our 4.5-billion-year-old Earth! — to know we’re at a turning point. But I’m convinced we are.
How Amazon Became the Largest Private EV Charging Operator in the US — Bloomberg
Cat’s take: Key quote: “What was different here was this was a new type of electric use... That’s a really big power requirement in a parking lot.” While Amazon is leading this charge, many others will follow.
The pensioners and babies behind a new era of climate lawsuits — Financial Times (subscription)
Bill’s take: These suits take years to play out and can produce little tangible immediate action even when successful. Yet slowly, their accumulated weight is changing the dynamics around climate action.
Europe has taken its energy destiny back into its own hands — European Commission
Anca’s take: EU's Ursula von der Leyen and IEA chief Fatih Birol celebrate Europe cutting its energy dependency on Russia and getting through winter without blackouts. They are right this good news didn't grab headlines. The nuance is the EU shifted its dependency on U.S. LNG and industry is still reeling from the crisis.
Florida blocks heat protections for workers right before summer — NPR Amena’s take: The law preempts Miami-Dade County, which was about to take steps to provide about 300,000 of its workers with paid rest breaks and access to shade and water.
Will a heat pump save you money? It depends — Canary Media
Amy’s take: This is a handy story. I was surprised at how cost-effective natural-gas heating systems can be, though of course those costs aren’t factoring in the climate impacts of the fuel.
How a Plan to Fix Fashion’s Waste Crisis Unraveled in Just 12 Months — Bloomberg
Cat’s take: Key quote: “You are up against cotton, but then you’re also up against synthetics, which are based on oil and are probably going to get cheaper" as fossil fuel majors look for new markets.
More of what we're reading:
Making cement is very damaging for the climate. One solution is opening in California — AP News
Climate targets group under fire over Bezos-backed carbon offsets decision — Financial Times (subscription)
We denote ‘(subscription)’ when publications don’t provide any complimentary articles, but many others may ultimately allow you to read only a limited number each month before subscribing. We encourage those who can afford it to support the journalism you love most!
VOICES
Helping entrepreneurial scientists cross the first ‘Valley of Death’
Illustration by Nadya Nickels.
BY: DAVID JARAMILLO
Jaramillo is the chief technology officer and a co-founder at Verne, and was a Breakthrough Energy Innovator Fellow. You can reach him at david@verneh2.com or on X at @davestjar.
In the startup world, “the Valley of Death” is typically associated with the precarious phase when a company is going from a promising early product demonstration to finding its place in the market. It’s a chasm many startups fail to cross.
I’d argue this isn’t even the most perilous Valley of Death. There is an even earlier and deeper one, where much of our country’s science and tech innovation remains trapped.
This valley is by the lab bench. Many scientists develop breakthrough materials and new processes that could be successful commercial products.
But most of these breakthroughs remain in lab notebooks or seminar slides and never translate into startup ideas.
Editor’s note: David Jaramillo was a member of the first cohort of the Fellows Program at Breakthrough Energy, which also supports Cipher.
DATA DIVE
Europe’s grid expansion out of sync with renewables goals
Source: Ember• Countries include the 27 European Union member countries, Norway, Switzerland and the Western Balkans. "Other" includes the remaining countries not individually represented. Six countries in the "Other" category do not publicly report planned line lengths. Their share was calculated based on the average growth reported by the rest of the countries.
Europe’s plans to grow its grid do not match its ambitious wind and solar deployment goals, which risks leaving countries unprepared for the green transition.
That’s the key message in a recent report from climate think tank Ember, which analyzed the national grid development plans of 35 European countries (including non-members of the European Union).
The report found “a high degree of misalignment” between how much and how fast the region’s transmission operators plan to develop the grid and the region’s foreseen installed wind and solar capacity by 2030.
Clean energy technologies can be deployed much faster than transmission lines can be built or upgraded, according to the report.
Europe’s national transmission networks today collectively consist of approximately 500,000 kilometers (nearly 310,700 miles) of lines, exceeding the average distance from the Earth to the Moon, Ember found.
Spain is set to add the most new lines by 2026, reaching a total of over 50,000 km from about 45,000 km today.
Meanwhile, Denmark — a leader in wind energy deployment in Europe — stands out as the country set to add the most lines relative to its existing grid. It plans to add 3,300 km by 2026 to its current line length of 7,440 km.
The plans indicate grid expansion is set to pick up significantly after 2026, Ember found.
AND FINALLY... Eclipse awe
Still in awe of last week’s eclipse? So is our associate editor, Jillian Mock, who snapped this photo in Plano, Texas. She writes: “The eclipse really made me notice the sun's power; for the few minutes the moon blocked it, the air cooled and evening fell around us. And as soon as a tiny sliver of the sun emerged again, it instantly got warmer and lighter.” The sun is the ultimate power source in our solar system, after all!
Each week, we feature a photo that is somehow related to energy, the thing we all need but don’t notice until it’s expensive or gone. Email your ideas and photos to news@ciphernews.com.
Editor’s note: In addition to supporting Cipher, Breakthrough Energy also supports and partners with a range of entities working to tackle climate change, including nonprofits, corporations, startups and research firms. For more information on Cipher’s editorial policy, click here.
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