MAY 15, 2024

Hello!

In today’s edition:

• Bill Spindle visits two solar research labs in Sydney and Singapore.
• A Voices author writes about carbon in concrete.
• Jillian Mock charts global clean power breaking records.

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Send your energy photos, story tips and more to news@ciphernews.com.

Illustration by Nadya Nickels; original image via Freepik.

Solar power poised for even greater breakthroughs

BY: BILL SPINDLE

SYDNEY and SINGAPORE — Solar power has become the primary workhorse of the energy transition, the fastest growing source of electricity for 19 years and running. From contributing virtually nothing a couple decades ago, it accounted for 5.5% of global electricity generation last year.

Yet the path ahead for solar promises not just evolution but revolution, according to two leading researchers Bill met with during his recent reporting trip through Asia.

Check out the full story to read all about Bill’s visits in Australia and Singapore.

Highlights here:

These are the frontlines of solar research: the University of New South Wales in Sydney and the National University of Singapore. Martin Green, sometimes called the "Godfather" of modern solar panels, predicted at least as much innovation ahead as the industry has seen to date. His lab has long pushed the limits of solar technology and continues to do so today.

Meanwhile, in Singapore, Thomas Reindl of the Solar Energy Research Institute, helps lead a team addressing cloud cover and space constraints, particular challenges in tropical, urban settings like Singapore. Researchers are harnessing big data from hundreds of sunlight sensors to finely predict solar output, enabling smarter, adaptive energy systems.

Both experts agree that while solar energy cannot single-handedly fulfill the world’s burgeoning energy needs, its role is indispensable and growing.

But Green and Reindl see major breakthroughs in the coming decades that will keep solar at the forefront of the global energy scene.

Read the full article on Cipher’s website.

Editor's note: This summary was written in part with the help of ChatGPT.

Lunchtime Reads and Hot Takes

What Trump promised oil CEOs as he asked them to steer $1 billion to his campaign — The Washington Post

Amy’s take: Some of the executives in the room are seeking to take advantage of tax credits that could be nixed or minimized if Trump wins, so I wonder how they're processing this.

Biden hiking tariffs on Chinese EVs, solar cells, steel, aluminum — adding to tensions with Beijing — AP News

Amena’s take: The idea is to prevent billions in investments from "unfairly underpriced exports from China" in areas like electric vehicles, batteries, semiconductor chips and solar parts.

U.S. bans Russian uranium imports, key to nuclear fuel supply — The Washington Post

Cat’s take: Enriched uranium is fuel for nuclear reactors, sources of carbon-free base load power. The same bill makes $2.7 billion approved in previous legislation available to spur uranium processing in the U.S.

FERC launches long-awaited overhaul for new transmission — POLITICO Pro (subscription)

Amena’s take: The nation's power grid is currently ill-equipped to deal with new resources coming online and extreme weather events. As the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Chairman Willie Phillips noted, "the writing is on the wall."

Biden and oil companies like this climate tech. Many Americans do not. — The Washington Post

Bill’s take: The tough realities of making carbon capture and storage work at scale are becoming ever clearer as major oil and gas companies and the Biden administration implement the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.

Altman-Backed Oklo’s Shares Spiral in Debut After SPAC Deal — Bloomberg

Cat’s take: Nuclear may be a solution for power-hungry data centers, and demand for those is on the rise after Sam Altman’s company OpenAI catalyzed the industry with ChatGPT. But Oklo still has to get approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Good COP, bad COP: Azerbaijan’s climate charm offensive is backfiring — POLITICO

Anca’s take: Good read assessing the growing scrutiny over the regime in Baku, as well as what to expect at this year's COP hosted, the second year in a row, by a petrostate.

Biden’s Solar Factory Boom Slows as Cheap Imports Flood Market — Bloomberg

Amena’s take: High borrowing costs and cheap solar panel prices are causing some, but not all solar manufacturers to pause or take stock of their plans. But as the story notes it's not all bad news.

Record-breaking increase in CO2 levels in world’s atmosphere — The Guardian

Cat’s take: An Ember report finding renewables were 30% of global electricity in 2023 was encouraging climate news last week, but we must also hold this data showing a record-breaking increase in the global average concentration of CO2 front and center, too.

China’s green aluminum ambitions hit by erratic rains, power cuts — Reuters

Bill’s take: Faltering hydropower in the face of rising temperatures and droughts has become a major stumbling block in the energy transition globally, but especially in Asia where coal picks up the slack.

More of what we're reading:

• IEA trims 2024 oil demand growth forecast, widens gap with OPEC — Reuters

• US Republican attorneys general sue to stop EPA’s carbon rule — Reuters
• The Company Preaching America’s Nuclear Revival — Bloomberg

Editor's note: A Lunchtime Read included in last week's newsletter incorrectly interpreted an Euractiv article on hydrogen subsidies. It said projects could produce hydrogen below €0.5 per kilogram, but that was actually the level of subsidy said projects could produce hydrogen at competitively, not the aggregate production price. We've corrected it on our website here.

We denote ‘(subscription)’ when publications don’t provide any complimentary articles, but many others may ultimately allow you to read only a limited number each month before subscribing. We encourage those who can afford it to support the journalism you love most!

In concrete, carbon removal offers value beyond CO2 disposal

Illustration by Nadya Nickels.

BY: ROBERT NIVEN

Niven is the CEO and founder of CarbonCure Technologies. You can reach him at ceo@carboncure.com.

Imagine if we could take the root of our climate crisis, carbon dioxide, and use it as a solution.

We can.

To achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, we’ll need the full spectrum of carbon removal solutions, as the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change makes clear.

When we talk about removing carbon from the atmosphere, many journalists, investors and policymakers seem to focus on one particular carbon removal pathway: Direct air capture (DAC) paired with geologic storage. While DAC to geologic storage will be a crucial tool in our carbon removal toolbox, it’s currently sucking oxygen away from other essential removal technologies.

Right now, geologic storage wells come with regulatory and infrastructure hurdles, not to mention public resistance. What’s more, geologic storage treats CO2 as waste that belongs in an expensive landfill a mile underground.

Another solution merits our attention — one that embraces the virtue of recycling, not just for aluminum, paper and plastics, but for CO2 as well. Carbon utilization puts captured CO2 to work as an input for a wide range of products, including garments, vodka, jet fuel and concrete.

The potential with concrete is particularly massive. With an estimated 35 billion metric tons of concrete poured around the world annually, it’s impossible to envision society without this crucial substance. It’s the world’s most used building material due to its low cost, local availability and versatility. We’ll need a lot more concrete to construct durable, climate-resilient cities. Unlike energy, there are no suitably scalable substitutes for concrete.

Read the full article to learn more about concrete and carbon capture.

Editor’s note: Investors in CarbonCure include Breakthrough Energy Ventures, a program of Breakthrough Energy, which also supports Cipher.

Despite fossil fuels dominating, wind and solar are surging

Source: Ember Electricity Data Explorer, Ember Global Electricity Review 2024 • Annual data from 2000 to 2022 is gross generation, taken from a variety of sources. 2023 data is an estimate of gross generation, based on generation gathered from monthly data. "Other renewables" includes bioenergy, geothermal, tidal and wave generation.

BY: JILLIAN MOCK

Wind and solar power's slice of the global electricity pie is surging, having increased roughly sevenfold over the last dozen or so years. 

Together, these renewable-energy sources of power generated 13.4% of the world’s electricity in 2023, up from a mere 1.78% in 2010, according to climate think tank Ember.

Renewable energy, including wind, solar and hydropower, generated a record 30% of the world’s electricity last year, according to a report released by the think tank last week.

Despite that record, Ember’s data indicates hydropower and zero-emitting nuclear energy have actually decreased their contributions to the global electricity mix slightly since 2010.

While hydropower is still the world’s largest source of clean power, its share in the world’s energy mix is at its lowest level since 2000. Droughts in recent years have reduced hydropower output in many parts of the world.

Meanwhile, some countries moved to reduce their reliance on nuclear power after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident, although in recent years nuclear has been seen more and more as playing a key role in the energy transition.

Fossil fuels still dominate the world’s energy mix, and helped meet rising electricity demand last year, Ember noted.

AND FINALLY...
Midwestern wind

Cipher reader and senior consultant at APCO Tristan Fitzpatrick shared this photo of the Meadow Lake Wind Farm in northwest Indiana from the Amtrak train while traveling from Indianapolis to Chicago.

Each week, we feature a photo that is somehow related to energy, the thing we all need but don’t notice until it’s expensive or gone. Email your ideas and photos to news@ciphernews.com.

Editor’s note: In addition to supporting Cipher, Breakthrough Energy also supports and partners with a range of entities working to tackle climate change, including nonprofits, corporations, startups and research firms. For more information on Cipher’s editorial policy, click here.