JUNE 18, 2025

Hello,

In this week’s edition of Cipher, we’re publishing the first of a series of stories Amena Saiyid reported from her native country of Pakistan:

• She delves into how solar is transforming people’s lives and straining the energy grid.
• She shares reflections on all the places she saw solar panels being used, from remote mountain hamlets to agricultural plains to bustling big cities.
• And Amena charts how solar panels imported from China have made all this growth possible.

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Send your energy photos, story tips and more to news@ciphernews.com.

Rows of solar panels greet visitors to the city of Khaplu in the Baltistan region of northern Pakistan. These panels pump drinking water for the city's 30,000 residents. Photo by Amena H. Saiyid.

Solar power is transforming Pakistan

BY: AMENA H. SAIYID

KARACHI, Pakistan — Zahir Shah, a driver who works in a posh neighborhood here, was fed up. With nearly half his monthly salary going toward electricity bills, in April he used his savings to buy a solar panel and small battery to power his modest one-room home. It cut his bill in half.

Shah is one of many Pakistanis turning to cheap Chinese solar panels to escape exorbitantly high electricity bills and the power outages common across the country’s fossil fuel-dominated grid.

Solar’s use has become as ubiquitous as cell phones in Pakistan, said Waqas Moosa, head of the Pakistan Solar Association and co-founder of Lahore-based Hadron Solar.

“It is now even being considered in some villages as an essential item in dowries along with television, furniture and fridges,” he added.

Abundantly cheap, clean electricity is breaking down income barriers here, empowering some of Pakistan’s least privileged groups with new opportunities, comfort and — potentially — more disposable income.

To be sure, the poorest Pakistanis can’t afford even the cheapest solar panels, but the technology’s broad adoption sets Pakistan apart from other developing countries like South Africa and Namibia, where solar is also widespread, but is mostly only accessible to companies and affluent households.

But there is a downside: the explosive growth of solar has also unleashed a spiral of economic pain on the nation’s energy infrastructure, which is struggling to manage the growing surge of clean energy.

Pakistan’s electricity grid has long been dominated by fossil fuels — largely natural gas — as well as nuclear and hydro power, according to the International Energy Agency.

Solar and wind currently provide a fraction of the grid’s power, about 4%, or roughly six gigawatts, said Rabia Babar, data manager for Renewables First. But there is nearly two or three times as much solar in Pakistan that isn’t connected to the grid or part of the net-metered program.

The government initially encouraged solar through a “net metering” policy, allowing customers to sell their excess power back to the grid at generous rates. But those customers often go off grid during the day to generate power for their own use, according to Haneea Isaad, energy finance specialist with the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. When those users go off grid, the government loses revenue.

And when users reduce their reliance on the power grid, electricity prices rise, said Isaad. Electricity bills already were high in Pakistan because of high liquefied natural gas prices and pressure to pay back some of the country’s debt, among other factors.

On top of that, the Pakistani government has contracts with private companies, including several Chinese firms, that require fixed payments to the 104 power plants in the country running on coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear energy — no matter how much electricity a plant generates.

All of which means Pakistan can’t pay all of its bills or invest in transmission infrastructure improvements.

Pakistanis, meanwhile, are embracing cheap solar because “energy bills are crippling them,” said Pakistan Senator Sherry Rehman, who heads the Senate task force on climate and environment in Islamabad.

Shah, the Karachi driver, spent the equivalent of $35 USD for his one solar panel and battery, which are off grid. His employers, Mahir and Sadia Muzaffar, have been selling excess solar energy from more than 50 panels through the net metering program for the past six years.

“I don’t think we could have seen a better example of the democratization of this technology,” Pakistan Power Minister Awais Leghari told Cipher.

Read this article and share it on Cipher’s website.

Lunchtime Reads and Hot Takes

The Senate GOP’s Seismic Overhaul of Clean Energy Tax Credits, Explained — Heatmap News (subscription)
Amena’s take: While the Senate treats clean energy more favorably than the House-adopted measure, both plans dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act, affecting supply chains and clean manufacturing efforts.

Trump firing of NRC commissioner jars agency’s leadership — E&E News (subscription)
Cat’s take: "The arbitrary removal of commissioners without due cause creates regulatory uncertainty that threatens to delay America’s nuclear energy expansion," the American Nuclear Society said of the news.

EU proposes ban on Russian gas imports by end of 2027 — Reuters
Anca’s take: The proposals set out legal measures to ensure the plan cannot be blocked by EU members. The EU wants to expand clean energy and could import more U.S. LNG.

Your Electric Bill Is Rising Faster Than Inflation. Here’s Why. — The Wall Street Journal
Cat’s take: There's more of that to come: The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects electricity prices will be 4% higher this summer than last for residential customers, largely due to the rise in natural gas prices.

The Evergrande of EVs?: The Interview That Shook China’s Auto Industry — Volt Rush Substack
Bill’s take: Volt Rush, written by a former Beijing-based correspondent for Financial Times and Bloomberg, is one of the most insightful observers of the global energy transition.

EIB backs Spain-France power link with 1.6 billion euros — Reuters
Anca’s take: Experts said the unprecedented power outage in the Iberian Peninsula could have been less severe if the region had more interconnectors to exchange power with other countries.

Chart: Hundreds of gigawatts of clean energy at risk with GOP bill — Canary Media
Amena’s take: "But if the bill kneecaps even a fraction of what’s anticipated, it will have serious consequences for the U.S. energy system" that is facing unprecedented demands for power due to AI.

Europe’s nuclear fusion potential draws record investment round — Financial Times (subscription)
Cat’s take: Proxima Fusion is developing a stellarator, a different approach than the best-funded U.S. fusion startups. It's more complicated to build, but the pitch is that it's a better foundation for a power plant.

As Companies Abandon Climate Pledges, Is There a Silver Lining? — Bloomberg
Bill’s take: Rather than pursue costly targets, companies increasingly believe lobbying for regulations that cover all companies is a better option. The trouble is, governments are loosening regulations.

More of what we're reading:

• Miscalculation by Spanish power grid operator REE contributed to massive blackout, report finds — Reuters

• World Bank lifts ban on funding nuclear energy in boost to industry — Financial Times (subscription)
• Climate Intuition: Future-proofing ports for climate and trade evolution — J.P. Morgan
  
  

We denote ‘(subscription)’ when publications don’t provide any complimentary articles, but many others may ultimately allow you to read only a limited number each month before subscribing. We encourage those who can afford it to support the journalism you love most!

Solar power is everywhere in Pakistan—here’s what that looks like

Shading their eyes from the strong sunlight, schoolgirls eagerly watch as engineers hoist solar panels atop their community school in the remote village of Nar in the Baltistan region of northern Pakistan. Photo by Amena H. Saiyid.

BY: AMENA H. SAIYID

To say solar power is booming in Pakistan is an understatement.

On a recent trip to my native country, I was overwhelmed by the omnipresence of solar energy in nearly every corner.

Generous government policies are enabling cheap Chinese imports to flood the bazaars, turning solar energy into a commodity as accessible as mobile phones in Pakistan.

To be sure, fossil fuels — primarily natural gas — still power most of Pakistan’s electricity and oil-fueled internal combustion engine cars still make up most vehicles on the roads. But a solar revolution is also underway.

Here are some of the ways I saw and heard about solar panels being used:

• Providing electricity to remote regions like Baltistan that are not connected to the national energy grid.
• Powering everything from factories, commercial buildings, streetlights and government buildings in the major cities of Karachi, Islamabad and Lahore.
• Keeping lights and laptops on in schools from Karachi to the Skardu Valley in the country’s northern reaches.
• Boosting agricultural activity by allowing farmers to move away from expensive diesel-powered generators to run their tubewells.

Read this article and see more pictures on Cipher’s website.

Chinese solar panel imports to Pakistan are soaring this year

Source: Renewables First, Pakistan Electricity Review 2025 • 2025 depicts data from January through April. Renewables First analyzed Chinese import data collected by UK-based climate think tank Ember.

BY: AMENA H. SAIYID

Chinese solar panel imports into Pakistan in 2025 are set to exceed last year’s record-breaking total, per new data from Islamabad-based think tank Renewables First.

The imports have been flooding Pakistani markets in recent years as the country copes with rolling blackouts from its fossil-fuel dominated power grid and a 155% jump in electricity bill prices since 2021.

Solar panels from China more than quadrupled to 16.6 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 from 2.5 GW in 2021, making Pakistan one of the world’s top destinations for Chinese panels, according to the think tank.

And it's showing up in the power supply: Solar has accounted for a quarter of Pakistan's utility-supplied electricity so far this year, Reuters reported Tuesday based on data from nonprofit Ember.

The South Asian country has imported 10 GW of solar panels from China already this year — almost 60% of the total imported last year, the data shows.

“This trend suggests that 2025 is on track to surpass last year’s solar imports,” Rabia Babar, data manager for Renewables First, told Cipher.

Solar panels have become increasingly attractive and affordable for Pakistanis as prices have plunged, according to the International Energy Agency.

China produces far more solar panels than it needs and has been selling them at low cost around the globe, targeting Asian markets. It has invested $60 billion in energy and infrastructure projects in Pakistan, where it doesn’t face the kind of anti-dumping tariffs levied by the United States and the European Union.

But the availability of cheap solar panels has a price. While consumers are benefiting from lower electricity bills, Pakistan’s fledgling solar manufacturing sector can’t compete because they had to pay import duties on solar panel components until last year, which contributed to the domestic sector’s demise. Last year, the government lifted the levy for manufacturers that met certain conditions, but developers say the relief came too late.

Last week, the country’s ruling party proposed an 18% sales tax on imported panels in its upcoming budget to boost domestic manufacturing. But the levy may run into trouble because the party’s coalition partner in the government opposes the measure.

The Pakistan Solar Association said the claim the measure will boost local manufacturing is flawed “because there is no large scale or high efficiency solar panel manufacturing facility in Pakistan today,” Waqas Moosa, head of the solar group and co-founder of Lahore-based Hadron Solar, said in a statement.

For example, Pakistan-based Tesla Industries (an engineering firm incorporated in 1992 and unrelated to Elon Musk’s company) tried making mainstream solar panels over a decade ago but, after running into competition from cheaper Chinese alternatives, pivoted to making panels just for small-scale applications.

AND FINALLY...
Salt sights

Cipher reader Jason Bordoff, who leads Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, is shown here at sunset on the Uyuni Salt Flat, located in Bolivia, which is the largest salt flat in the world. Sharing the photo with Cipher, Jason writes that it's also the largest lithium source in the world, although it's not (yet) developed, unlike next door in Chile.

Each week, we feature a photo that is somehow related to energy, the thing we all need but don’t notice until it’s expensive or gone. Email your ideas and photos to news@ciphernews.com.

Editor’s note: In addition to supporting Cipher, Breakthrough Energy also supports and partners with a range of entities working to tackle climate change, including nonprofits, corporations, startups and research firms. For more information on Cipher’s editorial policy, click here.