MAY 7, 2025

Good morning,

This week, we’ve expanded Cipher’s Cleantech Tracker to include solar and wind manufacturing. Check it out!

In today’s edition:

• Jillian Mock, our formidable associate editor, dives into which states are attracting the most solar and wind manufacturing and why.
• A Voices author ponders the importance of embracing disruption to tackle climate change.
• And Cat Clifford has a Data Dive showing how tariffs could impact different types of U.S. energy. 

Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here.

Send your energy photos, story tips and more to news@ciphernews.com.

Source: Clean Investment Monitor, Rhodium Group and MIT CEEPR, Cipher analysis • Includes planned and actual investments.

Five states lead on solar and wind manufacturing. Here’s why.

BY: JILLIAN MOCK

Just five states have received nearly half of all the investments into wind and solar manufacturing projects in the United States since 2018, according to a Cipher analysis.

In the seven years ending in 2024, 118 solar manufacturing projects were announced nationwide, amounting to $26 billion in investments, according to an analysis of Cipher’s Cleantech Tracker. In the same period, 28 wind manufacturing projects were announced worth $5 billion.

Texas, New York, Georgia, Ohio and New Mexico — in that order — have together attracted nearly half of all those manufacturing dollars.

Each of the top five states also has particular advantages boosting its manufacturing efforts, according to experts interviewed for this article:

• Texas has abundant solar and wind resources and a hands-off regulatory environment.
• New York has robust climate and clean energy goals supported by state policies and is striving to be a leader in offshore wind.
• Georgia has a history of state support for solar development and has attracted some solar manufacturing pioneers, like Qcells.
• Ohio has high wind-energy potential and early pioneers in solar manufacturing, like First Solar, which has set up shop there.
• New Mexico has strong solar resources and is next to sunny Arizona, which boasts its own solar manufacturing industry. 

Announced investments in solar and wind manufacturing reached $31 billion by the end of 2024, according to Cipher’s analysis of data from the Clean Investment Monitor, a project of Rhodium Group and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. Together, Texas, New York, Georgia, Ohio and New Mexico accounted for roughly 48% of all investments.

But some of the projects benefiting from this notable money flow could be in jeopardy. The recent surge in clean energy manufacturing “didn’t happen in a vacuum,” explained Lynn Abramson, president of the Clean Energy Business Network. “It was spurred in part by major federal investments through tax credits, grants and loan authority enacted over the past 2.5 years on the heels of decades of bipartisan support.”

The Trump administration has pulled back funding for clean energy and climate projects passed under the Biden administration and called for Congress to cut clean energy provisions in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, President Joe Biden’s signature climate law. And tariffs imposed by the current administration could raise costs for manufacturers.

Click on this still image of Cipher’s interactive Cleantech Tracker to explore the tracker on Cipher’s website.

Source: The Clean Investment Monitor, Rhodium Group and MIT CEEPR. Investments are measured from October 1, 2018 to December 31, 2024. Canceled projects represent $0 of investment and are not displayed. Clean hydrogen includes (but is not limited to) hydrogen produced from zero-emitting electricity and from natural gas and oil with carbon capture.

At number one on the list, Texas has 18 solar manufacturing projects, nearly all of which were either operational or under construction by the end of 2024. The state has also built a lot of solar and wind farms, and last year led the country in electricity generation from renewable sources.

New York, number two on the list, had more wind manufacturing facilities announced in the last seven years (eight facilities) than any other state, according to Cipher’s analysis.

But the offshore wind industry has faced economic and supply-chain challenges in recent years, leading to concerns that some of the manufacturing projects announced or under construction may not be completed. The Trump administration is also particularly hostile toward the wind industry.

“The demand for solar and wind remain strong, both in the U.S. and globally,” Abramson said. “The continued growth of these industries is inevitable — it’s just a question of how quickly, with how many starts and stops, and how many companies going under.”

Read this article and share it on Cipher’s website.

Lunchtime Reads and Hot Takes

EU to propose end-2027 halt to all Russian gas imports — Reuters
Anca’s take: While executives in some EU industries have signaled support for a return to Russian gas (if there is peace), the EU is pressing ahead with efforts to cut decades-old energy ties with Moscow.

Democratic states sue Trump over efforts to block wind energy — E&E News (subscription)
Cat’s take: It doesn't seem to make sense to take any source of energy off the table at a time when demand for electricity is surging.

Spain May Find Valuable Lessons From South Australia’s 2016 Blackout — Bloomberg
Bill’s take: The lesson from South Australia is grids running on renewable energy need to be part of a robust system. Same goes for fossil fuel-dominated grids. Without that, either fails.

Exxon to overtake Shell and BP on ‘low-carbon’ spending — Financial Times (subscription)
Amy’s take: What a fascinating sign of the times, though the story has some important caveats toward the end about how low-carbon spending is calculated.

Warren Buffet calls for grid overhaul in his CEO swan song — E&E News (subscription)
Cat’s take: Buffett urged for more robust federal control of the grid. "It's a problem, something akin to the interstate highway system, where you needed the power of the government, really, to get things done."

Trump’s Gutting of US Climate Report Prompts Science Groups to Step Up — Bloomberg
Bill’s take: Private money has stepped up here and many other places, but won’t be able to fill the role of the U.S. government.

Trump Proposes Slashing $163 Billion in Government Programs, While Boosting Military Spending — The Wall Street Journal
Cat’s take: Dubbed the "skinny budget," the proposal will go through a lot of negotiations in Congress. But as an indication of the administration's priorities, the budget sends a clear message.

Climate Change Urgency Has Declined. The Green Transition Hasn’t. — The New York Times
Cat’s take: In this piece by NYT writer David Wallace-Wells, energy consultant Nat Bullard says of momentum peaking: “It’s a 2021 thing.” The problem: Spending on clean energy is adding energy to meet demand, not replacing high-emission energy.

More of what we're reading:

• Orsted cancels major UK wind project as economics worsen — Reuters

• How warning signs hinted at Spain’s unprecedented power outage — Reuters
• How GM Led A Parade of Chinese Automakers Into Mexico — The Dunne Insights Newsletter

We denote ‘(subscription)’ when publications don’t provide any complimentary articles, but many others may ultimately allow you to read only a limited number each month before subscribing. We encourage those who can afford it to support the journalism you love most!

Embracing disruption is key to tackling climate change

Illustration by Nadya Nickels.

BY: ALEXANDER DALE

Dale is the director of global challenges at MIT Solve, an initiative focused on tech-based solutions to solve big problems. You can reach him on LinkedIn. 
 
Events once labeled “unprecedented” are now the new normal. 
 
Globally, the signs of escalating climate disruption are unavoidable: wildfires in Los Angeles, catastrophic flooding in Germany and Nigeria, record heat waves in South Asia and typhoons devastating the Philippines. These events reveal a stark truth: the residual damage from repeated climate disasters is weakening communities, making recovery harder and increasing long-term vulnerability. 
 
Compounding the challenge, the new federal administration in the United States has already taken steps to stall climate progress –– including opposing offshore wind, EPA green infrastructure funds and New York City’s congestion pricing mandate.
 
But the decisions we make now are going to determine whether our communities collapse under the weight of escalating climate risks or adapt to meet the challenges head-on. Adapting often means moving out of our comfort zones by choice, which is hard. But the stakes are high and, importantly, the solutions already exist –– not in some future breakthrough, but in deploying innovations we’ve already made in smarter, faster ways. 
 
As director of global challenges at MIT Solve, I have the privilege of working with myriad companies tackling global climate change impacts in bold and novel ways. While I mention a few in this piece, countless others –– both familiar and yet to be discovered –– are doing meaningful work. These organizations offer valuable lessons for anyone committed to the health of our planet and the future of humanity.

Read this article and share it on Cipher’s website.

Why tariffs pose a bigger risk to renewable energy than fossil fuels

Source: Rystad Energy "Trump & Energy" report, second edition, April 2025. Shale refers to both oil and natural gas extracted from shale rock.

BY: CAT CLIFFORD

Tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump will likely hit the supply chains for wind and solar much harder than supply chains for fossil fuels.

Energy research company Rystad Energy shows this in the second edition of its “Trump and Energy” report, published in April, which analyzed supply chains for various fossil fuel and renewable sources of energy in the United States.

Virtually all — 90% — of capital expenditures associated with extracting oil and natural gas from shale rock, (a kind of layered sedimentary rock), was spent on domestically sourced parts, such as piping, Rystad said. By comparison, only 48% of capital expenditures associated with solar energy were for domestically sourced parts, such as modules and cables.

Trump has implemented wide-ranging, and constantly changing, tariffs on imports from foreign countries, making products originating in other countries more expensive — energy components included.

“Renewables are more exposed to those tariffs just because most of the components are being imported from abroad,” said Marina Domingues, the head of new energies for Rystad in the U.S.

China is a dominant supplier of renewable-energy parts.

“If you go back in time 15 years ago, it wasn't like this,” said Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad. At that time, American and European companies were leading the technology development of solar panels, Galimberti said.

But to reduce its dependency on imported fossil fuels, China invested heavily in wind and solar, so “became the powerhouse of all the renewables,” Galimberti said.

Meanwhile, the U.S. continued to grow its dominance in oil and gas – and the related supply chains.

But the tariffs could still negatively impact the country’s oil and gas sector, particularly if they drive the economy into a recession, said Galimberti.

“I don't see any scenario in which tariffs can end up being good for any sector,” said Galimberti. “Let's be blunt.”

AND FINALLY...
Hawaii power

Cipher’s associate editor Jillian Mock snapped this photo of a power line overlooking Hanalei Bay while on a recent trip to Hawaii. After a steep uphill climb, hikers are rewarded with this breathtaking view (which is not diminished by the power lines!).

Each week, we feature a photo that is somehow related to energy, the thing we all need but don’t notice until it’s expensive or gone. Email your ideas and photos to news@ciphernews.com.

Editor’s note: In addition to supporting Cipher, Breakthrough Energy also supports and partners with a range of entities working to tackle climate change, including nonprofits, corporations, startups and research firms. For more information on Cipher’s editorial policy, click here.